p.131 For the military commanders and staff, the primary challenges
lie in understanding the situation, identifying threat sources, determining courses of action and developing lines of operations
through the orthodox application of doctrinal appreciation processes... threats to security are latent but may emerge
from interactions between a myriad of stakeholders... In such cases it may be beneficial to apply theories formulated
to describe the behaviour and life-cycles of natural systems in order to understand how societies work, how failing (or fledgling)
states can be stabilised and supported, and where a military force can achieve disproportionate effects.
p.132 Sources of stress emerge as conflicting
interactions between these stakeholders, and from actors that choose to challenge or operate outside the rules of
the system (thus undermining the legitimacy and authority of the state). Applying an analytical approach which seeks
to isolate and then concentrate on each ‘agent’ (or stakeholder) in turn, fails to efficiently
identify the importance of behaviours that emerge as a result of the interactions between agents. These
interactions, behaviours, and the positive and negative feedback cycles that control them, are more likely to provide insight
into the emergence of threats to security than the modelling of agents in isolation. Consequently, it is helpful
to consider the society as a complex adaptive system
p.132-133 in a complex adaptive system, positive and negative feedback
cycles can result in disproportionate responses, unpredictable behaviour or an indeterminate relationship between cause and
effect.
p.135 Resilience and the related concept of adaptive capacity
are critical to the stability of a complex adaptive system
p.135 Resilience refers to the capacity of the system to absorb
and tolerate disturbance without collapsing (retaining structure and function), while adaptive capacity relates
to the ability of the system’s agents to learn and store knowledge and experience, creating flexibility in problem-solving.
Resilience and adaptive capacity are interdependent, and diversity (or functional redundancy) is fundamental to both.
p.136 the relationships between these stakeholders [JLJ
- important agents within the complex adaptive system] should be examined. While many of these will be complex
and opaque, understanding these interactions is critical as they govern the emerging behaviour of the complex adaptive
system when iterated through positive or negative feedback cycles. Identifying which agents and interactions
contribute to sources of stress... and which act as sources of resilience... will provide a set of possible points where leverage
may be applied to the system.
p.137-138 The points of leverage or ‘levers’ which may
be used to produce disproportionate effects on targets identified within a complex adaptive system can be
drawn from systems theory... the use of these levers formalises the requirement to identify and monitor sources
of stress and subversion, protect and reinforce successful strategies, build and generate successful templates, and
dislocate or disrupt threats, subversive activities and harmful templates... Given the inherent non-linearity—and
therefore unpredictability—in the response of a complex system to actions that alter its feedback mechanisms and information
flows, the actions of the military force conducting the stabilisation or support operation are likely to be ‘effects
seeking’ rather than ‘effects-based’... measuring the effect and the effectiveness
of the actions taken by the military force and then adjusting those actions accordingly, is of paramount importance.
This requirement is encapsulated succinctly from a doctrinal perspective in the adaptation or ASDA cycle (act, sense, decide,
adapt). The most difficult task lies in assessing the effect that has been generated, an assessment that relies on the
effective monitoring of carefully selected, culturally perceptive measures of performance (MOP) and effectiveness (MOE). These
measures are necessarily specific to the societal system in question
p.139 Complexity theory affords commanders and their staff a useful ‘lens’
through which to view their tasks during the planning of stabilisation and support operations... A systemic
(rather than analytic) approach, focusing on interactions and feedback mechanisms rather than concentrating on agents, will
offer insights on where to apply leverage so as to contribute to the development of security and stability within a society.
The targeting derived from such an approach will focus on building and fostering identified sources of resilience
and adaptive capacity within the host nation, while mitigating or disrupting sources of stress. Complexity
theory highlights the non-linearity of feedback mechanisms, implying a requirement for the continuous monitoring of
measures of effectiveness in order to adapt effects-seeking operations.
