Copyright (c) 2013 John L. Jerz

Ben Gilad's Business War Games
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The Case for Using Probabilistic Knowledge in a Computer Chess Program (John L. Jerz)
Resilience in Man and Machine

Excerpts from Ben Gilad's web page. The philosophy here is directly applicable to the concept of a machine playing a game. Whatever plan we construct, by whatever means, must be 'wargamed' to determine its resilience and fit for the environment.

Business War Games
 
 
How They Work

All war games must answer two difficult questions:

  1. What will competitors do?
  2. How can my plan outsmart them?

Putting your strategy to test

Portraying competitors realistically allows management to pressure test various ideas in a mock "market battle" situation which approximates the real market better than any hypothetical model

http://www.bengilad.com/management_training.php

Who Should Play

What situations call for our war game?

  • You need to draw a plan, decide on a strategy
  • The success of the plan depends on the real world moves and countermoves of competitors (and other third parties)
  • You don't have direct information of those intended moves
  • You are not interested in a theoretical modeling of the market but in accurately predicting what competitors are most likely to do to your plan
  • Planning failure will be costly

http://www.bengilad.com/business_war_games.php

What They Are

Business war games are serious business. Not so much games and certainly not about wars--unless you are a cowboy or a Pentagon contractor. They are simulations of competitive dynamics in your markets with the goal of "pressure-testing" your plan...

we believe effective war games must be:

  • Simple - over-sophisticated, long and large scale games cost a lot more but do not produce better results.
  • Transparent - if you don't understand the exotic algorithm, how likely are you to trust the strategy?
  • Empowering - computer games don't understand internal politics, but you have to.
  • Fun - teams that learn how to role-play competitors with real market intelligence and character-building techniques maintain enthusiastic external focus for years.
  • Inexpensive - there is no good reason for games to cost hundred of thousands or even millions of dollars. If you know a good reason, write us.
  • Accessible - to truly improve the bottom line, managers at all levels of the organization should be able to use this amazing tool, not just few senior execs at the top.
  • Realistic - intelligence-based, human games are magnitudes more realistic than even the most sophisticated mathematical modeling.

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