xiii For a long time wargaming was the province of the military, where it
was used to form and test strategies, shake down new concepts for their feasibility, and anticipate a rival's moves. But broadly
speaking wargaming was little used in business.
xiii Business wargaming shows you things you haven't thought about
before.
xiii Business wargaming is a form of accelerated learning.
In today's world, as this book makes clear, it is hard to imagine what could be more valuable.
xiv Ask the following question about your organization: What would be the
value if you could accelerate learning by a factor of two, four, or ten? ...In the minds of the greatest military geniuses,
wargaming was useful not only because it exposed opportunities and weaknesses, but because it did so rapidly.
p.1 The only constant is change... No sensible decision can be made any
longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be. [source:] Isaac Asimov
p.1 We firmly believe that in situations too complex for conventional
(i.e. mostly linear) forms of analysis, business wargaming (a methodology developed originally in a military
context), offers today's top decision makers a way, if not to eliminate, at least to reduce the uncertainty they face
when making decisions.
p.7 Wargaming most likely grew out of a military necessity, namely to better
prepare military leaders and their officers for unforeseen developments on the battlefield.
p.7 The ability to better understand what likely hostile reactions one's
own planned course of action would evoke and how to best counter these reactions constitutes a source of competitive advantage
p.8-9 The modern game of chess was mentioned for the first time in the thirteenth
century in southern Europe. It was believed that Arabs, known as Moors, learned chess from the Persians when they
invaded Persia in the eighth century and later brought the game to Europe when they invaded Spain. From Spain chess quickly
spread across Europe. The Europeans gave chess pieces the names we know today, in part because they had a hard time
in pronouncing and spelling the Persian names, but also to reflect the world and the hierarchy in which they lived.
p.9 Although chess is characterized by a high degree of abstraction, it
contains the typical elements of contemporary warfare.
p.10 the Scotsman John Clerk invented a method to simulate
ship battles, which was effectively the first naval wargame. Clerk's aim was to analyze the moves and tactics of
battle ships in more detail... John Clerk's conclusions were published in 1790, under the title: An Essay on Naval Tactics,
Systematic and Historic... It is reported that Lord Nelson employed variations of Clerk's tactics in 1797 off
Cape St. Vincent and also in his victory at Trafalgar in 1805.
p.23 How resilient is our business? What happens if? Where is the next threat
coming from? How should we invest in countermeasures?
p.30 An interesting view on strategy, formulated
by two retired military leaders, Lieutenant General (ret.) Josef Feldman and Colonel (ret.) Paul Kruger (2007) of the Swiss
Army, describes strategy as a bridge between where an organization stands today and where it wants to be tomorrow.
In their view the pillars of the bridge are the values of the organization, which provide guidance for how this bridge
is built between the now and the future. In this sense strategy (or the bridge) provides the directions for how to
reach a certain vision or objective
p.34 we are proposing that whenever time and resources
permit, wargaming should be used to test a strategic plan before putting it into action and making significant
investments.
p.42 Gilad (2004) states that business wargaming is the most effective
managerial tool for assessing competitors' response to a changing industry. In his view, a wargame can help managers
to predict their competitors' most likely moves. In this sense business wargames allow experimentation and learning
with different strategies, without the risks of the significant cost of failure of the real world.
p.61 The first lesson was that no matter how well prepared you think you
are, you can always be better prepared!
p.73 While developing foresight is widely perceived as a crucial activity
for any organization... the question of how to develop foresight remains difficult to answer.
p.73 Foresight is more about spotting developments before
they become trends, seeing patterns before they fully emerge, and grasping the relevant features of social currents
that are likely to have impact (Tsoukas 2004), than it is about making predictions. In short, developing foresight
is about recognizing weak signals of change in the corporate business environment and it is about imagining
alternative scenarios and how one's own organization is likely to evolve within them.
p.74 [Day and Schoemaker quoted] "the key is to quickly spot those
signals that are relevant and explore them further, filter out the noise, and pursue opportunities ahead of the competition
or recognize the early signs of trouble before they escalate into major problems."
p.74 Business wargaming can be perceived as a tool to develop foresight,
recognize predictable surprises, and spot weak signals of change
p.92 Although Booz Allen Hamilton is one of the top players in the strategy
consulting field, it has never been recognized for it and has thus never been a household name like some of its main competitors,
like, for example, McKinsey & Company, The Boston Consulting Group or Bain & Company.
[back cover] Creating imaginative and credible scenarios and testing them
against smart opponents who are eager to find holes and counter your strategy, allows you to learn about a plan or a new venture
in the security of the conference room rather than learning the hard way when you go live.
