[front flap] The future will always be unpredictable, but with the right
techniques it can be imagined and managed.
vii this book explains how to imagine and construct a set of alternative futures so you can explore the
crucial decisions facing your organization.
viii By learning to develop and use competitive foresight scenarios, organizations can take actions to make
a desirable future occur, quickly adapt to unfavorable environments, and efficiently implement strategies that will succeed
in many different market conditions.
viii Strategy is about placing bets
x this book offers a new system to understand and prepare an organization for future opportunities and threats:
scenario learning. This scenario-learning processs... we're not offering a technology that can be... packaged. Each
organization will have to adapt the scenario-learning techniques demonstrated by the contributers of this book to fit its
own needs.
xi Scenario learning is a search for an understanding of how the future could change, and how an organization
could thrive by adapting to a number of particular changed circumstances.
[What is Scenario Learning?, Liam Fahey, Robert M. Randall, p.3-21]
p.7 Scenario sets provide vividly contrasting narrative descriptions of how several uncertain aspects of
the future might evolve... The scenarios are projections of a potential future... A projection should be interpreted as one
view of the future that is based upon specific information and a set of logical assumptions.
p.10 Scenario plots are not merely exercises in creative writing. They are constructed
out of driving forces, the forces that shape and propel the story described in a particular plot.
p.12 Two caveats, however, should be noted. One is that we should be careful not
to fall into the trap of interpreting the description of end states as forecasts: They are merely speculative projections
based on a specific set of assumptions. Two, it is more important to define clearly the dynamics of the future
- how we reached the end state - than to aim for 100 percent accuracy about the end state itself. Scenarios
are most valuable when they are understood to be movies of an evolving story, not a snapshot of a specific point in time.
[Plotting Your Scenarios, Peter Schwartz, James Ogilvy, p.57-80]
p.71 To be effective, scenario plots must make people rethink their assumptions about the future.
p.72 A good example of a crisis and response plot is the scenario that attempts to answer
the question, How much development is sustainable?
p.73 coevolution. [JLJ - is defined as] Change in one system interacts and causes change in other systems.
p.80 If you're not having fun, you're not doing it right. Be creative and have a good time. Remember, scenarios
are a tool for unexpected learning, and learning about the unexpected.
[Scenario Planning: Mapping the Paths to the Desired Future, David Mason, p.109-121]
p.109 Scenario planning begins to succeed the moment management realizes that current strategies,
and their related investment decisions need to be thoroughly "flight-tested" in a variety of possible futures.
[Testing Your Strategies in Scenarios, Charles M. Perrottet, p.122-139]
p.123 If prepared well, a group of scenarios will, as a set, cover the full range of issues that could threaten
or open opportunities... as events combine to change the future in unsuspected ways.
p.124 Scenarios, because they are structured specifically to probe areas of uncertainty,
provide an excellent testing ground for strategies. The entire scenario process is built around identifying and managing
areas of uncertainty... scenarios force the strategist to consider interactions among the full range of uncertain
forces... those that prove to be robust - that is, successful in widely different circumstances - can be quickly implemented
with greater confidence.
p.125 When the objective is to develop strategy... the team should use a scenario process... designed to
produce highly customized, macro-level backdrops for strategic visioning and planning.
p.131 It is also important to build into scenarios the kind of instability that in the real world threatens
to disrupt current trends and relationships.
[Dynamic Scenarios: Systems Thinking Meets Scenario Planning, Edward Ward, Audrey E. Schriefer,
p.140-156]
p.140 Scenarios depict various imaginary worlds, environments in which an organization's strategy will play
out against rivals.
p.140 Complexity refers to the multiplicity of variables that must be considered and the variety of relationships
that can exist among them. Dynamism accounts for the types and rates of change that can occur. This chapter shows how scenario
learning is increased by an approach that regards the environments in which organizations operate as systems of dynamic complexity.
We call the methodology for preparing and using this type of futures analysis dynamic scenarios.
p.141 The concept of dynamic scenarios advocated in this chapter stems from the application of a large body
of systems research to the development and use of scenarios. One fundamental principle... is that complexity and dynamism
can best be understood in the context of a "system." ...A characteristic of any system is that the behavior of each
element has an effect on the behavior of the system as a whole... In short, any system is more than the sum of its
parts... Another fundamental principle of systems thinking is that one must view the world simultaneously from three
levels: events, patterns of behaviors, and structure.
p.143 The goal of applying systems theory to scenarios therefore is to provide decision makers with a methodology
that enables them to identify and better understand the complex relationships that are at the heart of any system and the
dynamic nature of how these relationships change.
p.150 At this point in the process, the development team had a preliminary dynamic scenario generator
representing their theory of how many of the principle variables in the system interact with one another... The dynamic
scenario generator (DSG) is a low-tech, high-leverage tool to model the dynamics within complex systems.
With this diagram as a plot outline and the scenario themes to provide content, the team was able to write scripts for plausible
but distinctly different scenarios by assuming a substantial and significant change to one of the key variables, or critical
uncertainties.
p.151 The stories that emerged by tracing the logical response to this dramatic change throughout the DSG
were logical and plausible scenarios.
p.152 The DSG that the team created could be used to generate a wide variety of scenarios.
p.156 "Perhaps the single greatest liability of management teams is that they confront complex dynamic
realities with a language designed for simple static problems," warns Peter Senge, author of The
Fifth Discipline. He proposes that the basic purpose of a learning organization is to continually expand and create its future.
We concur, and believe that both profound and rapid learning occur when scenario planning and systems thinking are
employed. The dynamic scenarios methodology combines the two approaches.
[Simulation Models: A Tool for Rigorous Scenario Analysis, Mark Paich, Roy Hinton, p.157-174]
p.158 All good managers are instinctive scenario builders.
p.159 Computer simulations allow managers to derive the implications of the relationships by playing out
complex interactions over time.
p.160 The process of building a computer model - translating verbal statements of relationships into mathematical
relationships - forces managers to be precise about how their mental models work... Mental models are insufficient for analyzing
the dynamic interactions between multiple variables. People lack the cognitive capacity to keep track of more than a few variables
at once.
p.161 The ultimate object of scenario analysis is to help managers choose good strategies in the
face of significant uncertainty about the environment.
p.172 Keep the model structure simple and focused on a specific learning goal of the organization.
p.174 No model or group of models will reveal the "truth" about the future. They can, however reveal useful
distinctions about our operating environment and certain limitations in our capacity to understand that environment. Having
done so, we can make more informed choices.
[Industry Scenarios, Liam Fahey, p.189-222]
p.196 A common mistake industry scenario developers often make is that they don't clearly establish the
purpose of the scenario project before initiating the process.
p.208-209 Analysis and reflection sometimes identify things that cannot happen or that
are extremely unlikely to happen during the scenario period. We call these impossibles... When considering
specific impossibles and their effect on industry evolution, decision makers should ask: What would have to happen for each
impossible to occur?
p.216 a critical output of a set of scenarios is the identification of the indicators that should be watched
to determine which future, or end state, is emerging... indicators that allow a firm to anticipate the evolution of
its industry are key outputs of industry scenario exercises.
p.219 ask:What type of organization would be required to win within and across the competitive contexts
depicted in these scenarios?
p.220 begin by considering whether your firm's current strategy is "robust"; that is, how
well would it succeed in all of the scenarios?
p.222 These types of questions forced the decision makers to link their actions to possible futures.
p.222 scenarios succeed when they grab managers' attention about a range of possible... futures
and about their strategy implications... When... scenarios confront managers with... futures that they have not previously
considered... Managers are then more willing to entertain and assess new strategy alternatives. The
premise and hope underlying... scenarios is that the [organization] will be the first to perceive these alternatives
and understand how to exploit them.
[Competitor Scenarios: Projecting a Rival's Marketplace Strategy, Liam Fahey, p.223-245]
p.223 Scenarios offer a proven means to generate an understanding of competitors' strategies, capabilities,
and likely future actions. The success of any strategic move... always depends upon the current initiatives of and
potential reactions available to competitors. In short, strategy making that pays no attention to competitors is
extremely risky.
p.245 Regardless of how they are developed, competitor scenarios generate an understanding of competitors'
plausible strategy options, and provide indications of which options they might choose and why.
[Customer-driven Scenario Planning, John Kania, p.264-284]
p.268 Critical uncertainties are the contributing factors that will have consequences that can't yet be
measured... Traditional scenario planning uses predetermined events as a common platform and then creates possible future
worlds around different combinations of critical uncertainties.
p.269 One of the worlds that participants construct should be a "surprise-free world, so named because they
key drivers reflect the current expectations of the strategic-planning participants.
p.303 This projection of current trends provides the baseline scenario. It assumes that the economy suffers
no major mishaps between now and 2020 [JLJ - oops, throw that scenario away...]
[Imagining South Africa's Future, Adam Kahane, p.325-332]
p.330 the essence of the scenario development conversation deals with what might happen, not what should
happen... The scenario-building process can take creative risks because it is "only" about telling stories; it does not require
participants to make commitments.
[Introducing Scenarios to the Corporation, Audrey E. Schriefer, p.402-413]
p.404 The secret to winning acceptance of truly bold ideas is extensive preparation.
p.411 The team asked one of the firm's senior managers to recount his experience with scenarios at a previous
employer... His message: High-quality scenario work and its outputs can give decision makers new mental models to work from
and influence decision making.
[Twenty Common Pitfalls in Scenario Planning, Paul Schoemaker, p.422-431]
p.430 We can think of scenario planning as creating surrogate crises, which... then lead to bold action.
p.431 To be effective, scenarios must challenge the dominant paradigm and yet be intuitively accepted as
a spur to needed action... The most important use of scenario planning, however, is to devise new
insights about the future environment. From this foresight organizations can craft more effective strategies and plans.
