Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence (Schwartz, 2003)

Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence (Schwartz, 2003)

A survey of all the major trends that are likely to affect our lives, Inevitable Surprises is a manual for survival in the 21st century. And an exploration of the plausible prospects for tomorrow's history, and the implications they suggest for the decisions we should make today. The author is one of the world's leading experts in 'discontinuities': things that take us by surprise but which, in hindsight, were sadly predictable and usually avoidable. Events like the collapse of a major energy company or a devastating terrorist attack seem to come from nowhere. Not only are they shocking and disturbing, it often appears that their prevention would have been impossible. Not so, argues Schwartz: although we cannot do anything about the past, we can try to do something about the future. Should appeal strongly to a business-book as well as a general non-fiction readership.

-JLJ A typical consultant's self-centered view of the world - see how smart I am and see how many of my predictions were accurate. Look at how much I know and how I see the world. Look at all the bad things that happened to the groups and businesses that ignored my advice.

It is difficult to look at anything written for the public by a consultant, no matter how good, that rises any higher than a marketing tool. You have to pay to play, and the Global Business Network is expensive to join. Too bad that Schwartz couldn't follow up on his 1991 masterpiece with anything better. Inevitable, self-serving and unsurprising.

p.5 I advise major corporations and leading governments on long-term decisions. I help them look ahead and figure out today's actions based on long-term perceptions and insights. I help them see the big surprises, and the driving forces that are shaping the potential futures that may lie ahead. I help them see what is inevitable and where the fundamental uncertainties lie.

p.10 This book is for people who want to get past denial and defensiveness, to be the masters of their own fate in a world full of surprises. The first step in making that transition is to pay attention to the inevitable surprises of the future, and to develop strategies for dealing with them.

p.94 The bridge clearance on all American highways is thirteen feet nine inches - the minimum necessary to allow intercontinental ballistic missiles to fit beneath them on truck beds.

p.229 you can't predict the chaos and turbulence to come. But how can you best prepare? What foresight can you cultivate, so that when this level of instability comes, you, and the people you care about, are ready for it?

p.230 Identify in advance the kinds of "early-warning indicators" that would signal that a change is rapidly upon you... Once you've identified these signals, keep an eye out for them and be prepared to act when you observe them.

p.233-234 Most failures to adapt are, in effect, failures to learn enough in time about the changing circumstances.

p.236 The great risk of our time is being overtaken by inevitable surprises.

p.244-245 And of course nothing would have happened without my literary agent, John Brockman, and his partner, Katinka Matson. As usual, John set me on the right course. I had planned to write a very different book but John said that no one would read it and instead, I should write about what I was really interested in.

Enter supporting content here