Self-Organizing Holarchic Open (SOHO) systems

Given the phenomena exhibited by SOHO systems, conventional science approaches to modelling and forecasting are inappropriate, as are prevailing explanations in terms of linear causality and stochastic properties. Instead, narratives in the form of scenarios to depict morphogenetic causal loops, autocatalysis, and multiple possible pathways for development need to be considered.

p.725 For our purposes, a central question to be addressed by the narrative description of a SOHO system is an elaboration of its propensities.

p.728-729 Preparing the Narratives In the post-normal paradigm, a scientist’s role in decision making shifts from inferring what will happen, that is, making predictions which are the basis of decisions, to providing decision makers and the community with an appreciation, through narrative descriptions, of how the future might unfold. As noted earlier, these narratives consist of several scenarios of how the SOHO systems in question might evolve. These narratives focus on a qualitative/quantitative understanding which describes:

• the human context for the narrative;
• the hierarchical nature of the system;
• the attractors which may be accessible to the system;
• how the system behaves in the neighbourhood of each attractor, potentially in terms of a quantitative simulation model;
• the positive and negative feedbacks and autocatalytic loops and associated gradients which organize the system about an attractor;
• what might enable and disable these loops and hence might promote or discourage the system from being in the neighbourhood of an attractor; and
• what might be likely to precipitate flips between attractors.

These narratives are in the service of informing decision makers and the community about:

• possible future states of organization of the system;
  understanding of conditions under which these states might occur;
• understanding of the tradeoffs which the different states represent;
• appropriate schemes for ensuring the ability to adapt to different situations;
• and perhaps most importantly, the appropriate level of confidence that the narrative deserves; that is our degree of uncertainty.

Having sketched a picture of the possibilities in the future, it remains for scientists to suggest ways of mitigating and adapting to the inevitable surprises, both surprises in the form of unexpected flips to known attractors and those that involve flips to new attractors which correspond to heretofore unknown manifestations of system organization.

p.731 When all is said and done, our ability to predict is severely limited. Unexpected events and trends will occur. Surprise will happen, complexity will emerge. We must therefore rely on anticipatory and adaptive management.

p.731 The task of characterizing SOHO systems is to describe how these systems unfold over time. The description is a narrative, literally a story, that is qualitative with multiple threads of explanation, portraying a number of possible pathways for development (or storylines). The narratives characterize the... SOHO systems in terms of how the local context of... materials and information and biophysical environment, and the global propensities of capturing more resources... making more effective use of the resources; building more structure, and enhancing survivability, give rise to the emergence of the nested structures and processes which constitute a self-organizing holarchic open system.

p.737 Funtowicz and Ravetz [40] distinguish problem-solving strategies for different circumstances defined by the inherent uncertainties in the situation and the severity of consequences arising from the decision to be made.