[Part 5 Introduction]
p.422 In this part we present overall modelling concepts, and separate behavioral components which
must be integrated into attempts to model behavior... H. Bossel, and engineer and systems analyst, presents
a comprehensive concept for the modelling of social behavior... This approach views social or political behavior as
the result of information processing sequences of interacting (often abstract) decision-making systems which orient their
decisions by reference to fundamental operational requirements (basic needs) and by the drive to reduce or remove cognitive
dissonance. [JLJ - so can we approach the concept of a machine playing a game. This could actually be the central
hypothesis of A Proposed Heuristic...]
[pp.423-472 Information Processing, Cognitive Dissonance, and Basic Needs: The Modelling of
Behavior, Bossel]
p.423 A major drawback of current simulation models of social systems is their lack of an adequate representation
of behavioral aspects.
p.423 even in new and strange situations never encountered before, we usually have a fair knowledge
of what to expect of ourselves and others. From this one can only draw the conclusion that behavior must
be governed by a relatively limited set of basic procedures and principles shared by all. If these basic procedures
and principles were better known, the validity and accuracy of computer simulations of social systems could be much improved;
one would better be able to separate behaviorally unlikely from behaviorally likely scenarios and system responses.
p.423-424 The present paper presents a framework for the modelling of individual and social behavior based
on the four fundamental hypotheses that
- Behavior is the result of a complex information processing sequence whose basic structure is identical
across systems;
- the composite behavior of societal systems can be properly approximated by the interaction
of a few dominant, often abstract, decision-making systems;
- behavior is governed by reference to a set of basic needs, whose basic dimensions are identical
across systems;
- the processes determining behavior are driven mainly by mechanisms of cognitive dissonance removal.
p.424 The major objective of the present research is the development of general computer
programs which permit a reasonably accurate description of the interactive behavior of two (or more) nation-actors,
given the specific initial and boundary data. This objective must be achieved with a minimum of complexity but without
sacrifice of any essential features. [JLJ - this research conceptually could be applied to a machine playing a game.]
p.427 Our approach views the dynamic processes in society as outcomes of the behavior of
interacting decision-makers. Behavior itself is seen as the end result of information processing guided by
a normative reference system, and driven by the motivation for cognitive dissonance reduction.
p.428 The motivation for the removal of cognitive dissonance is assumed to be the central
driving force in all information processing concerning behavior... in the perception process... in the state analysis...
and in policy synthesis.
p.429 In an on-going process of state analysis, the perceived system state is constantly
or periodically being compared to the (changing) normative reference state. The state analysis generates a cognitive
dissonance vector with respect to those system needs and environmental and system state variables which currently lead to
system dissatisfaction, and may thus indicate a need for decision and action.
p.429-430 The perceived state vector and the dissonance vector guide the policy synthesis
process... the policy synthesis process must be guided by heuristic principles and programs... Trial policies are evaluated
for their likely present and future impact by applying them to an internal model of the environment... The model
is normally relatively crude and incomplete and requires constant readjustment through learning. [JLJ - or perhaps, as suggested
by John Boyd, as the emergence of novelty causes us to re-orient our behavior.]
p.430 The basic needs categories of individual or collective systems appear to be
physiological/physical support needs, psychological needs, security, freedom, preparedness, robustness, predictability,
success, ability to influence the environment (or their equivalents). As all of these dimensions are required
for proper functioning of the system, they carry approximately equal weight.
p.430 Objective measures of needs satisfaction can be established from... system performance
measures... using perturbation analysis of the system. This means that the mapping of system and environmental state
on the needs satisfaction state can probably be made without recourse to subjective assessments.
p.430 The processes of derivation and adjustment of normative statements
are driven by mechanisms of cognitive dissonance reduction.
p.431 The basic behavioral instructions are to (1) satisfy first all survival thresholds
of needs satisfaction, and only then to (2) maximize overall needs satisfaction with respect to all needs dimensions.
p.431 The system and environmental state is first perceived and analyzed by the
response system. The corresponding needs satisfaction state is determined by direct or indirect reference to current
basic needs satisfaction requirements. Policy synthesis is guided by the resulting dissonance vector. The overall scheme is
believed to be applicable to all behavioral systems, whether natural or artificial, individual or collective... [JLJ
- even perhaps a machine playing a strategic game] More particulars, especially with respect to program sequencing, are found
in the original reports (Bossel 1975a and 1975b). [JLJ - Bossel, Framework for the Modelling of Behavior, Institut
fur Systemtech und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe, February 1975, and Bossel, Notes on Basic Needs, Priorities,
and Normative Change, Institut fur Systemtech und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe, June 1975. Trouble locating
copies of these in English. Let me know if anyone can find them.]
p.436 Attention Set: As a result of the filter norms logic, the attention of the observation
block at the beginning of an observation cycle is directed to specific state variables, message sources, or information types.
It appears useful to distinguish between "alarm", "alert", and "attention" or "information" levels or priorities. Messages
on the attention or information levels ("green") are being monitored for their informative content or potential usefulness,
those on the alert level ("yellow") are of some immediate or potentially vital interest, those on the alarm level ("red")
require full and immediate attention and affect vital interests of the system.
p.437 Current or imagined system or environmental states must be mapped on the needs dimensions
before the system can assess their effect on system operation. The system and environmental states are represented by selected
state variables (indicators) which represent the current state sufficiently well for a given issue or perspective. If the
needs dimensions chosen represent quantifiable... physical... and operational system characteristics, then the mapping functions
can be determined by perturbation analysis.
p.441 In order to survive and to be viable, any behavioral system must constantly attempt to satisfy
the operational requirements (basic needs) of its causal system and of its information processing response system.
p.443 The key to understanding of the mutual influences and to system modification in general is
again the basic needs vector. The process is a recurring sequence of: appearance of an innovation in the broadest sense...
translation into system change - corresponding change in needs satisfaction state - adoption, rejection, or modification of
the innovation - penetration (if adopted) to saturation level ... perhaps instigation of new innovations influencing further
development. [JLJ - sounds a lot like Boyd's OODA loop.]
p.443 Adjustments of reference standards and of aspiration levels for the
needs satisfaction state are assumed to be effected by mechanisms of cognitive dissonance reduction.
p.451 Following other authors, notably Maslow (1954/1970) [JLJ - Maslow, Motivation
and Personality], we assign the crucial role in the normative system to basic needs whose satisfaction (to a
greater or lesser degree) is required for proper system operation. The list of basic needs must be complete (for a given system),
i.e., must account for all normative aspects of behavior; each of the components must be "basic" in the sense that it cannot
be mapped onto even more basic needs; and each component must be independent of others in the sense that it cannot be represented
by combination of other needs.
p.454 "Assume that you can construct a robot which will have the physical and informational processing
capabilities to survive (until it breaks down by material wear and tear) in an environment containing the resources necessary
for its survival, but in diffuse form.
(1) What systems features would the robot have to possess if it were to survive as a single
individual?..."
p.461 A desirable state perceived as unattainable will generate little or no motivation
directed towards its attainment, while the motivation towards a desirable and attainable goal will usually
be overwhelming. The attainability is determined by assessing system and environmental constraints, temporary needs
satisfaction costs, and probabilities of success
[pp.473-484 Basic Sociological Concepts for the Simulation of Political Decision-Making,
Gruber]
p.474-475 In social psychology one differentiates very strictly between needs, values, beliefs,
attitudes, and opinions. We will... only differentiate between needs and values, where attitudes and beliefs are
to enter into the concept of values as more permanent, more comprehensive and more deeply rooted judgements on objects...
we use values, which have a general character and are independent of specific objects. They may be concretized in certain
situations concerning certain objects.... needs represent the most general and fundamental motives common to all
p.476 The fundamental propositions of Festinger's dissonance theory are the following:
H1: The existence of dissonance results in a motivation to reduce or remove the dissonance
and to avoid increasing dissonance...
H4: The stronger the dissonance, the stronger the motivation for dissonance reduction.
p.477 H15: If a desired behavior cannot be evoked by coercion, then dissonance increases with the
amount of coercion.
p.480 H35: Sensations are only possible if a change in energy levels takes place; an equivalence
of stimulus and environment will not result in a sensation.
H36: The more intensive the stimulus, the greater the chance of it being perceived.
H37: The stronger the need for certain objects, the greater the chance of perception of relevant
stimuli and of irrelevant stimuli not being perceived.
[pp.534-550 Multiattribute Utility Analysis - A Brief History, Keeney]
p.537 The weakest link of the four above steps in rendering decision analysis operational for multiple
objective problems is quantifying the decision maker's preferences. Defining the problem is common to all attempts to systematize
the decision making process. Quantifying uncertainties has also been widely addressed in modelling efforts.
And now, believe it or not, we have this (not kidding):
[Fuzzy Concepts: Logic, Motivation, Application, H. Skala]
p.301-302 For illustrative purposes suppose that we are interested in a formalized theory of Hippies
based on the (fuzzy) predicates "drug taking", "baldness", "employed" and "long haired" which will be abbreviated as D,B,E
and L respectively. The first thing we need are rules by which we are able to assign truth values to the atomic properties
of our theory... Assume for example we have assigned the truth values fD(a), fB(a),
fE(a) and fL(a). (fD(a) denotes the truth value of the atomic
proposition "a takes drugs".) Which truth value should we assign to the proposition
(L(a) or B(a)) and D(a) and not E(a)
which is just Zadeh's definition of a Hippie?
