Making good decisions does not require the decision maker to be
extremely intelligent. Effective decision makers tend to have an effective decision making process, and an intelligence
which is sufficient to follow the steps required for that process.
p.13"You do not have to be a rocket scientist to be a good decision
maker. Some of the most effective decision makers are people of just average intelligence. In fact, there is some evidence
to suggest that people of unusually high intelligence have more trouble making decisions. They tend to be more 'cognitively
complex,' meaning they take a larger number of considerations into account than does the average person when trying to make
a decision."
To make a decision requires a predictive model and an anticipatory strategy, even if these are very
basic. We select a strategy to fit the situation as we understand it, and which we think will ultimately be successful.
p.14"Whenever we make a decision, we do so according to a strategy,
whether we are conscious of this or not."
Here are nine steps which can lead to effective decisions:
p.32-44"The nine steps to effective decision making
1. Identify your objective
2. Do a preliminary survey of your options
3. Identify the implicated values.
4. Assess the importance of the decision.
5. Budget your time and energy.
6. Choose a decision-making strategy.
7. Identify your options.
8. Evaluate your options.
9. Make your choice - on time, on budget"
Making choices also involves choosing how you are to choose. We might start by forming a model of
the world and predicting the consequences of our choice using that model.
p.67"Obviously, whenever you make a choice, you also make a series of choices about how to choose.
You may do this explicitly or implicitly, but it is unavoidable."
Constrained optimization is one strategy available to us when making a decision. We would need to
identify and model the constraints as we see them.
p.69"There are five broad types of decision-making strategies: optimization, constrained optimization,
satisficing, preselection, and randomization... There are many different ways of constraining an optimization, however. One
could set the constraints fairly tightly, seeking to optimize over only a very small set of alternatives, or loosely, requiring
a much more expansive search and evaluation... Not surprisingly, constrained optimization is a common decision-making strategy,
because it can suit so many different kinds of choice problems. Knowing how to set the constraints in any given case is a
great skill to cultivate."
